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DATA Bait?

July 29, 2015 Tennyson Woodbridge
Baitball

Tableau Software (DATA) is being woodsheded  today, still down almost 18% in the last half of today's session.

We've been holding a modest position since late last year, along with a basket of related fodder (SPLK, FEYE and biggest, PANW, which goes back to last fall).

Keeping it small in the hi-growth / hi-beta realm is the key to keeping big sleep at night. Early years of tossing and turning, barking at myself with the coul'da, would'a and why did I not routines made it clear keeping tidy is key to operating at a high level.

So now - does a holder of DATA sell-out today, hold-in several more quarters, or instead average-up in size, taking advantage of this 4-month haircut? Let's examine the possibilities...

Sell - Well, why not? The name has broken it's uptrend on major-volume; the cockroach theory suggests the first disappointment (guidance in this case) is not the last; it's still early into a seasonally weak summer period and most high-tech has slipped noticeably now in relative strength (RS).

Buy/Average-up - Well, why not? The name is still having a stellar year (up 22% for the moment), it's high-growth in a growing industry - there are going to be set-backs; but meanwhile the macro theme remains in-tact. Further, the first hard slice in a major winner will typically mark the lowest-low, intermediate-term, and then subsequently prints higher-lows going forward (think of typical Richter scale. A violent displacement often starts with the greatest energy and subsides gradually thereafter).

Hold for now - Well, why not? we've got a tiger by the tail and something of a cockroach scurrying. While on the other hand the name remains in a profitable longer trend (for now) and the first violent slice from highs is often the worst. Before selling, why not ensure DATA will not make lower-lows from here, at least in terms of RS if the market is behaving poorly, and keep an eye peeled at the same time for a higher-high entry to average-up?

I guess I'll sleep on that ;)

5 Comments

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